Bi-Monthly Market Update — June 2026

[TALKING HEAD] "If you bought a home in San Mateo County before 2020, there's a number you should know. And most homeowners in this market have no idea what it is." [TEXT OVERLAY: "San Mateo County Homeowners · June 2026 · Graeham Watts, Intero Real Estate"] [TALKING HEAD] "The average homeowner who bought in San Mateo County in 2015 is sitting on approximately $820,000 in home equity today. That's based on a median purchase price around $1.1 million in 2015, compared to where the Peninsula market is priced right now." [TEXT OVERLAY: "2015 Buyer → ~$820K in Equity · Today"] [TALKING HEAD] "Now, $820,000 is a significant number. And what I want to walk you through is what you can actually do with it — because there are exactly three real options, and most people only consider one of them." [B-ROLL: Peninsula neighborhood at dusk, warm lights in windows, quiet street] [TALKING HEAD] "Option one: sell and capture the gain. If you're a couple, the IRS gives you a $500,000 capital gains exclusion on your primary residence. On an $820,000 gain, that means you'd owe taxes on roughly $320,000 — but with California's rates, you want to model that specifically. The net proceeds after commission, taxes, and closing costs on a $1.9 million sale are still substantial — typically in the $600K to $700K range depending on your cost basis." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Option 1: Sell · $500K Couple's Exclusion · Net Proceeds $600K–$700K (est.)"] [TALKING HEAD] "Option two: access the equity without selling. A cash-out refinance or a HELOC lets you pull $200,000 to $400,000 out of the home while keeping it. The tradeoff: at today's rates — 6.9% on a 30-year refi, around 9.25% on a HELOC — you're carrying a real cost. This makes sense when you're deploying that capital into something generating a higher return than your interest rate. A rental property. A business. A renovation that increases the home's value before you sell." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Option 2: Cash-Out Refi @ 6.9% / HELOC @ ~9.25% · Access $200K–$400K Without Selling"] [B-ROLL: Couple reviewing financial documents at kitchen table, advisor across from them] [TALKING HEAD] "Option three: sell and 1031 exchange into a new investment property. A 1031 lets you defer the capital gains entirely by rolling your proceeds into a like-kind property — another investment real estate asset — within 180 days. Strict timelines: you have 45 days to identify the replacement property, 180 days to close. But for an owner with $800,000 in equity who wants to keep building a portfolio rather than cash out, the 1031 is often the highest-leverage move." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Option 3: 1031 Exchange · Defer Cap Gains · 45-Day ID / 180-Day Close"] [TALKING HEAD] "Here's how I think about which option fits which situation. If you're downsizing, relocating, or at the point in life where liquidity matters more than appreciation — sell and capture. If you need capital for an investment or a renovation but you love the asset — cash-out or HELOC. If you want to keep building wealth in real estate without the tax drag — 1031." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Downsizer / Relocator → Sell & Capture · Investor → Refi / HELOC · Portfolio Builder → 1031"] [TALKING HEAD] "If you want me to run this analysis specifically for your property — your actual equity position, your cost basis, and which of these three options makes the most sense given your situation — comment EQUITY below and I'll put that together for you." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Comment EQUITY · Get Your Personal Equity Analysis"] "I'm Graeham Watts with Intero Real Estate, DRE# 01466876. I do a Bay Area and East Palo Alto update every two months — subscribe so you catch the next one."

[TALKING HEAD — fast open] "If you bought in San Mateo County in 2015 — you're sitting on roughly $820,000 in equity right now." [TEXT OVERLAY: "$820K · SMC 2015 Buyer · Est. June 2026"] "Here are your three real options for what to do with it:" "Option one: sell and capture the gain. The IRS gives couples a $500K exclusion. Net proceeds after taxes and closing costs: typically $600K to $700K." "Option two: cash-out refi or HELOC. Access $200K–$400K without selling. At today's 6.9% rate, you're carrying a real cost — make sure you're deploying it into something that outperforms." "Option three: 1031 exchange. Sell, defer the gains, roll into another investment property. 45-day identify, 180-day close." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Sell & Capture · Refi / HELOC · 1031 Exchange"] "Comment EQUITY and I'll run your personal equity analysis. Graeham Watts, Intero Real Estate."

[TALKING HEAD] "If you bought a home in East Palo Alto before 2014, you're likely sitting on somewhere around $650,000 in equity. And there's a very specific set of numbers you need to run before you decide what to do with it." [TEXT OVERLAY: "East Palo Alto · Pre-2014 Buyers · ~$650K Equity · June 2026"] [TALKING HEAD] "Here's the situation. The median purchase price in EPA around 2012 to 2014 was roughly $420,000. Today's market value is around $1.07 million. That's a $650,000 gain — and it comes with a set of calculations that are specific to California and specific to long-term owners." [B-ROLL: East Palo Alto residential street, homes with mature trees] [TALKING HEAD] "First: the Prop 13 situation. If you bought in 2012 at $420,000, your property taxes are calculated on roughly that original value, adjusted by no more than 2% per year. So right now you might be paying around $5,200 a year in property taxes. The moment you sell and a new buyer takes over, they get assessed at today's market value — around $13,400 a year. That's a $8,200 annual difference. For a lot of long-term EPA owners, that gap is part of why they stay." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Prop 13 Tax: ~$5,200/yr (pre-2014 buyer) vs. ~$13,400/yr if reassessed today"] [TALKING HEAD] "Second: the capital gains math. The IRS allows couples to exclude $500,000 of gains from a primary residence sale. On a $650,000 gain, that leaves $150,000 potentially taxable. California taxes capital gains as ordinary income at up to 13.3%. Federal long-term capital gains on this amount: around 15% to 20%. So on $150,000 of taxable gain, you're looking at roughly $40,000 to $50,000 in combined taxes — which is a real number, but it's also on a $650,000 gain. The math still works." [TEXT OVERLAY: "$650K gain · $500K exclusion · ~$150K taxable · est. $40K–$50K in taxes"] [TALKING HEAD] "Third: your options. If you're fully paid off and the property is your primary home, staying is the lowest-cost path. You keep the Prop 13 base, you keep the equity appreciating, and you pay a low carrying cost. If you need liquidity — a HELOC lets you access $150,000 to $300,000 without triggering any of those tax events. And if you're ready to exit: net proceeds after taxes and closing costs on a $1.07 million sale are still likely in the $550,000 to $600,000 range for most pre-2014 buyers." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Stay: Keep Prop 13 · HELOC: Access Equity Tax-Free · Sell: ~$550K–$600K Net Est."] [TALKING HEAD] "The one thing I'd encourage every long-term EPA owner to do is run these numbers with actual figures — your cost basis, your current tax rate, your mortgage balance if any. The decision isn't the same for everyone, but it's knowable. Comment OPTIONS below and I'll run the rent-vs-sell math specifically for your property." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Comment OPTIONS · Personal Rent-vs-Sell Analysis"] "I'm Graeham Watts with Intero Real Estate, DRE# 01466876. Bi-monthly Bay Area and EPA market update — next one in August."

[TALKING HEAD — direct open] "If you bought in East Palo Alto before 2014, you're sitting on roughly $650,000 in equity. Here's what you need to know before you decide what to do with it." "Your Prop 13 tax is around $5,200 a year. If you sell, the new buyer gets reassessed to today's value — $13,400 a year. That gap is real and it's part of why long-term owners stay." [TEXT OVERLAY: "Prop 13: $5,200/yr now · $13,400/yr if reassessed"] "Capital gains: $650K gain, minus the $500K couple exclusion. Taxable gain: roughly $150K. Combined federal and state taxes on that: around $40K to $50K." "Net proceeds if you sell anyway: still likely $550K to $600K after taxes and closing costs." "Comment OPTIONS and I'll run the specific numbers for your property."